Friday, November 7, 2008

Baltic Dry Index levels off

After an incredible plunge over the past year, the BDI appears to be leveling off in the low 800s. We had two days up followed by a leg down today. This is less bad than a continued plunge, but the numbers are, on an inflation-adjusted level, similar to the lows around 750 in the past recession, and in many cases below the operating costs of the ships. So the drop is halting because the BDI can't go any lower-at this point shipowners will just idle their ships.

So the financial and speculative crises are now starting to affect the real commodity market, reducing lading to the point that shipping capacity is being lost. The next question is how severe the destruction will be.

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